Space Shuttle ECO Sonsors: an in-depth View

Space Shuttle ECO Sensor during Testing.After the scrub of space shuttle Atlantis December 2007 launch window, everyone is interested in the ECO sensors. That shuttle component is responsible for the scrub. Unfortunately, detailed information about it is hard to find.

However, I was able to obtain some good information. Most helpful was NASA’s “STS-114 Engine Cut-off Sensor Anomaly Technical Consultation Report“. I also used other NASA sources for my writeup, including information conveyed at the post-scrub press conferences.

Let’s start with some interesting fact that space shuttle program manager Wayne Hale provided in a press conference. According to him, the ECO sensors are an Apollo heritage. Their design dates back to the 1960s. Consequently, they are analog “computer systems”, which look quite strange compared to today’s technology.

I could not find any indication of sensor malfunction prior to STS-114, the “return to flight” mission. However, I have been told that pre-STS-114 flights did not have the same rigor checks in the flight procedure as they exist today. So it may very well be that there always were problems with the sensors, but these were “just” never detected.

It should also be noted that there was never a space shuttle main engine cutoff due to an ECO sensor (I need to correct this a bit later – but let’s keep it this way for the time being). It is believed, however, that on some flights the cutoff happened just a second or so before the ECO sensors would have triggered one. The amount of fuel left in the tank can not be analyzed post-flight, as the external tank is the only non-reusable component of the shuttle stack and lost after being separated from the orbiter.

But now let’s dig down into some hard technical facts
: A good starting point are the graphics that NASA posted on the space shuttle home page. I’ll reproduce them here, but due to the blog theme, they are a bit small. Click on each image for a high-res version. It will open up in a new window, so that you can read along.

There is a drawing that puts together all the pieces. It is an excellent starting point:

Space Shuttle ECO Sensors: OverviewA brief word of caution, though: the picture titles “LH2 ECO Sensor Locations” for a good reason. It is about the liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank sensors. There are also others, as we will see below. Let’s for the time being stick with the LH2 one. As far as I know, the LH2 sensors were also the only trouble source in recent shuttle launch attempts.

This is also where I need to correct myself. There actually have been main engine cutoffs due to ECO sensors, but none of them happened due to the liquid hydrogen sensors. As far as I know, there were three missions where it happened and among them were STS-51F and STS-93.

The image shows that the ECO sensors are located right at the bottom of the tank – which makes an awful lot of sense, as they should indicate depletion. There are four of them mounted in a single row on the shock mount. Each of them has their housing containing the actual sensing element. Even though this is not show on the above overview, let me add that there is are a lot of additional components that make up the so-called “ECO sensor”. That can be nicely seen in this schematic:

Space Shuttle ECO Sensors: Overall Schematic
The actual sensing element of the space shuttle's ECO sensor system.First of all, you’ll probably notice that it is more appropriate to speak of a “sensor system” than just of a “sensor”. If we talk about sensors, most of us simply think about the actual sensing element, seen to the right here. Obviously, that takes us far too short. You must think about the whole system to understand the problem. So think sensor element, electronics and electrical connections. All of this makes up what we call the “ECO Sensor”. In my personal opinion, there is a lot of misleading information and discussions on the public Internet these days. Part of this misunderstanding IMHO seems to stem back to the “sensor” vs. “sensor system” issue. Many folks express that they don’t understand why “such a simple sensor issue” can not be fixed. I guess that was even the motivation to write this post, but, hey, I am becoming off.-topic. On with the technical facts.

Next, you’ll notice that the ECO sensors are just few of the many sensors that make up the tank level information (the “point sensors”). All of these sensors are the same. The ECOs are in no way special, except for their name. ECO stems from “Engine Cut Off” and is attributed to the fact that these sensors are a emergency line of defense to shut down the engines if other things have already gone wrong (if all goes right, the ECOs are never used, but it is the ECOs that ultimately determine the fact that something went wrong…).

If you count, you’ll find twelve sensors: the four ECO sensors, one 5%, two 98%, one 100% minus, two 100%, one 100% plus and one overfill point sensor. Note that there are sensors both in the liquid hydrogen (LH2) and liquid oxygen (LOX) tank. Each of them has twelve, so there is a total of 24.

A notable difference is the location of the ECO sensors: for LH2, they are at the bottom of the external thank, while for LOX they are in the feedline inside the orbiter. In plain words that means that the LOX ECO sensors report very late while the LH2 sensors report early in the process of tank draining. This can be attributed to the fact that a fuel(LH2)-rich engine shutdown is required. I also assume that the risk of fuel pump overspeed and explosion is by far higher for the LH2 part of the system (but that just my guess, found no hard fact backing it).

The number of sensors at each position tell you something about their importance: it for sure is no accident that most positions are covered by one sensor, the 98% and 100% locations have two and the depletion location has four! Obviously, depletion is a major concern.

Which brings us to the point: why four? Let’s spell it out if it is not clear yet: it’s “just” for redundancy and backup. If there would be just one sensor, a single-sensor failure could be fatal. If it failed dry, it would cause an unnecessary (and comparatively risky) launch abort, if it failed wet and something else goes wrong, it could lead to vehicle destruction. Either way is not really desired, though obviously one case is better than the other.

To mitigate that risk, there are four sensors. But how put these to use? A simplistic approach could be that a poll is taken and the majority wins. So if we have one sensor telling dry and three telling wet, we would go to wet. Obviously, there would be a problem with a 2 dry/2 wet state. So our simplistic model is too simplistic. But I hope it conveyed the idea. What the system really does is a bit different:

First of all, there is a construct called “arming mass”. Keep in mind that the ECO sensors themselves are “just” a backup system to handle the case when other things have gone wrong before. Space shuttle computers continuously monitor engine performance and calculate fuel used. So there is a rough idea of how much fuel is left in the tank at any given moment. However, these calculations may not be 100% perfect and may not detect some malfunction, thus it is risky to rely on them alone. To mitigate that risk, the ECO sensor system has been put in place.

Now let’s take an extreme example. Let’s say an ECO sensor switches to dry just one second after launch. Would you trust it and assume the tank is already drained? I hope not. There are some points in flight where both logic and physics tell us the the tank can not be depleted. In fact, during most of the ascent it can not. But when we come close to main engine cutoff, then fuel may actually be used up. Only at that stage it is useful to look at the ECO sensors. This is what “arming mass” is all about. The shuttle’s computers continuously compute estimated fuel left and only when the estimate comes within the last 8 to 12 seconds of fuel depletion, the ECO sensors are armed.

This has some bonus, too. If an ECO sensor indicates “dry” before we reach arming mass, we can assume the sensor has failed. So that sensor will no longer be able to cast its vote when it later comes to aborting the launch. Please note, however, that it is not possible to detect a “failed wet” sensor in the same way. Sensors are expected to be “wet” during ascent and doing so obviously does not disqualify a sensor.

The ECO sensor mountpoint inside the space shuttle's external tank. As can be seen, they are mounted close to each other.Once the arming mass has reached, shuttle computers look at those sensors with a healthy status. If a single sensor indicates “dry”, computers initially assume a sensor failure. Remember: all sensors are mounted at the same location (see picture to the right), so they theoretically should indicated “dry” all at the same instant. However, that sensor is not disqualified. When now any second of the healthy sensor joins the other one in reading “dry”, shuttle computers assume an actual tank depletion.

They do not wait for the remaining qualified sensors, in a case now assuming these have failed “wet”. So whenever two qualified ECO sensors indicate “dry” after the space shuttle has reached “arming mass”, an abort will most probably be initiated. That means the space shuttle main engines will be cut off in a controlled and non-destructive way (which means a fuel-rich shutdown). Depending on when and how exactly this happens, it may lead to either an abort to the transatlantic landing (TAL) sites or an abort to orbit (ATO). I guess it may even be possible to reach the desired orbit with the help of the orbital maneuvering system if the engine cutoff happens very soon before its originally scheduled time.

Please let me add that the actual procedure for tank depletion must be even more complicated than briefly outlined here. For example, what happens if three of the ECO sensors disqualify themselves by indicating “dry” early in the ascent? Will the remaining single sensor than decide about launch abort? Also, what happens if all four fail early? I don’t like to speculate here, if somebody has the answer, please provide it ;) In any case, you hopefully have gotten some understanding now that the ECO sensor system and putting it to use is not as simple as these days it is often written on the web…

Now let’s look a little bit about where the sensors are located. If you paid attention to the above drawing, you have noticed the black lines which separate parts in the tank from parts in the orbiter (and yet from those at mission control center on the ground).

The best picture of the actual ECO sensor housing I could find is this one:

Space Shuttle ECO Sensors during a test procedurePlease note that it shows the ECO sensors during a test, in a test configuration. The mount is different from the actual one in the external tank.

The computers driving the sensors are located in the orbiter’s avionics bay:

Space Shuttle ECO Sensors: Orbiter Avionics BaysThis, and the following, drawings mention the “point sensor box”, PSB for short. Remember that the sensors together are the “point sensors” and the ECO sensors are just point sensors with a special name and function. NASA also lets us know where exactly the point sensor box is located in the shuttle’s aft:

Space Shuttle ECO Sensors: Orbiter Aft Avionics BaysAnd finally, we have some more information on the point sensor box itself:

Space Shuttle ECO Sensors: Functional Block Diagram of Point Sensor BoxThe point sensor box interprets sensor readings. The sensor elements provide a voltage. Certain low voltage level means “dry” while certain high voltage levels are interpreted as “wet”. However, somewhat above the “wet” levels, they indicated “dry” again. This level is reached when there is an open circuit.

NASA also provided an the exploded view of the point sensor box:

Space Shuttle ECO Sensors: Exploded View of Point Sensor Box
To me, it just looks like a box for electronics and I do not get any further insight from looking at the drawing. But anyways – it’s nice to know…

I could not find pictures of the not-yet-mentioned sensor system parts: the connectors and cables. Somehow the in-tank sensors and the on-board point sensor box must be connected to each other. This is done via some cables and connectors. Those must also be looked at when thinking about the system as whole. Especially as the failure reading we see points to an open circuit. I have read that some of the cable are below external tank foam. So its not easy to get to them.

I have heard that cryogenic temperatures are probably part of the trouble. Because failure readings seem to happen only when the tank ins filled (and thus very cold). One could assume that shrinking of ultra-cold material is part of the problem, but again, I have not found any credible references for this – or any other thermal results.

So it is now probably time to going right to the source. Below, find reproduced the deep technical description from the STS-114 paper quoted right at the start of this posting (quoted text in italics):

The MPS ECO system consists of point-sensors installed in the ET liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank and the Orbiter’s liquid oxygen (LO2) feedline. Point sensor electronics are designed to condition signals and to provide appropriate stimulation of the sensors and associated wiring and connectors.

Space Shuttle ECO Sensors: Overall Schematic

The point sensor electronics interprets a low resistance at a sensor as the presence of cryogenic liquid, which provides a “wet” indication to the Multiplexer/De-Multiplexer (MDM) for use by on-board General Purpose Computers (GPCs) and the ground Launch Processing System (LPS). Conversely, a high resistance is interpreted as a “dry” indication. The point sensor electronics include circuitry suitable for pre-flight verification of circuit function and are designed to fail “wet”. For example, an open circuit in the sensor, or an open or short in the signal path, will provide a “wet” indication to the MDM. The system is then activated and checked out during launch countdown and remains active during ascent.

The actual sensing element of the space shuttle's ECO sensor system.An ECO sensor is depicted in the next Figure. The sensor consists of a platinum wire sensing element mounted on an alumina Printed Wiring Board (PWB) and is encased in an aluminum housing. The sensing element acts as a variable resistance which changes on exposure to cryogenic liquid. This resistance variation is detected by post-sensor (signal conditioning) electronics and is used to generate either a “wet” or “dry” indication as noted above.

Space Shuttle ECO Sensors: System Overview

The ECO system is designed to protect the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs) from catastrophic failure due to propellant depletion. Flight software is coded to check for the presence of “wet” indications from the sensors within 8 to 12 seconds of SSME shutdown. The software rejects the first “dry” indication observed from any of the ECO sensors, but the presence of at least two more “dry” indications will result in a command to shutdown the SSMEs (i.e., “dry” indications from two of four “good” sensors are required for SSME shutdown). Early SSME shutdown would probably lead to a contingency Trans-Atlantic (TAL) abort. A failed “wet” indication cannot be detected. The system is designed so that LO2 depletion should occur first. However, a failure “wet” indication of three of the four LH2 sensors, coupled with an SSME problem that results in early LH2 depletion, could result in catastrophic failure of a SSME. Failure probability is considered remote, but would almost certainly be catastrophic to the flight vehicle. The system architecture addresses redundancy with one point sensor box containing four groups of sensor conditioner circuit cards. Each card can accommodate one hydrogen and one oxygen sensor. Each card group has its own power converter and one sensor conditioner card from each group services a pair of ECO sensors (again, one hydrogen and one oxygen). Wiring for each of the eight ECO sensors is split into one of two groups of sensors which are routed through separate Orbiter / ET monoball connections.

Let’s wrap-up: I hope you got a more in-depth view of the ECO sensor system by reading this post. At least, I think I have so by doing the research and writing it. Remember that I am no expert in this area, so I may be wrong. If you spot something that needs to be corrected, just drop me a note, for example in the form of a comment.

In regard to recent (STS-122…) developments, the question now is: what should be done if the root cause of the ECO sensor system failure can not be found. I don’t know, I miss too many facts. and my understanding is limited. But my guess is that if there can be rationale found to fly without it, that’s probably the best option to carry out. But hopefully tanking tests will show where it is flawed and a solution can be applied. Either way, I trust those wizards at NASA (and its contractors, of course). They have the have the training, they have the insight and they have the excellence. What else could one ask for?

Astronauts have left Kennedy Space Center

The astronauts have left Kennedy Space Center, but not without a big thank you to the launch support guys:

“We want to thank everyone who worked so hard to get us into space this launch window,” the astronauts said in a statement. “We had support teams working around the clock at KSC, JSC, and numerous sites in Europe. We were ready to fly, but understand that these types of technical challenges are part of the space program. We hope everyone gets some well-deserved rest, and we will be back to try again when the vehicle is ready to fly.”

They are now back to Houston, where they will continue their practices in support for a space shuttle Atlantis launch in January 2008. The launch is scheduled to be no earlier than January, 2nd. The date is obviously affected by the result of the ECO sensor troubleshooting that is currently being conducted. First news on that troubleshooting effort is expected on Tuesday.

No Space Shuttle Launch in December 2007…

NASA has waived off any further space shuttle launch attempts for the December launch window. NASA’s shuttle home page has a quick note about that:

The launch of space shuttle Atlantis has been rescheduled for no earlier than Jan. 2, 2008. The postponement will give engineers time to evaluate false readings from the engine cutoff sensor system that measures liquid hydrogen in the external tank.

As far as I know, a January, 2nd launch will be around 5:45am ET.

It is actually no surprise to me, given the new sensor problems. There is not much more news available as of now, I will keep you posted as I get updates.

Shuttle launch day? Unfortunately not: scrub!

Space Shuttle Atlantis LAUNCH HAS officially BEEN SCRUBBED. This post contains a full log of the order of events from tanking begin at 5:55am up until conclusion of the first post-scrub press briefing at around 8:30am.

Today should have seen the second launch attempt for space shuttle Atlantis’ STS-122 mission to the international space station ISS. Atlantis should have deliver the European Columbus lab module to the orbiting complex. Read why this now doesn’t happen…

Tanking has begun at 5:55a ET and so far everything is proceeding nominally. At around 6:40a a first status of the ECO sensors, responsible for a three-day launch scrub, is expected. All for sensors must work perfectly today, otherwise the launch will be scrubbed. If all goes well, Atlantis will lift-off at 3:21pm ET, within a very short one-minute launch window. Weather looks favorable, with just a 20% chance of weather prohibiting the launch.

Liquid hydrogen sensor number 3 has failed!

tanking has begun for space shuttle Atlantis second launch attempt on December, 9thAt 6:25a, guys in the control center look relaxed. Let’s hope it remains that way…


All four ECO sensors now indicate “wet”. This is good, but not yet a relief. The problem that caused launch scrub on Thursday did only show up after a series of test commands were sent to the sensors. As of my information, we are still about half an hour to an hour away from these checks.

6:47a: tanking has changed to “fast fill” mode. Last time, the ECO sensor problem occured 16 minutes into fast fill. According to the NASA TV commentator, we should get results of the sensor test in about half an hour.

6:52am: Liquid hydrogen sensor 3 has failed! A minute before that, the NASA TV commentator announced that all four sensors had passed the check, but then, he sadly had to announce that ECO sensor number three failed after a few seconds. Based on the information provided in yesterday’s press briefing, a launch scrub is highly probable.

7:00am: NASA will tank for another half hour. The team is now doing troubleshooting. No launch scrub yet!

7:02am: NASA TV commentator: “the ground rules layed out that we have to have four sensors to proceed with launch. And we have had sensor number 3 fail. So, we are going to do some trouble shooting over the next half hour. At that point we would stop, asses whether we do any further testing at that point and then drain liquid oxygen. Liquid hydrogen will stay in filled configuration.” … “An official launch scrub has not yet been declared, but according to the plan, the rest of the morning is evolving into a tanking test.

7:09am: NASA TV: “The MMT has asked the propulsion console to come up with a time line on how long it would take to drain the liquid oxygen and then drain liquid hydrogen to 5%”. “The mission management team will … shortly … talk about what our official status will be. Although we have not officially declared the scrub, the commit launch criteria does not permit to continue…

7:13am: NASA TV: “We continue to fill the tank for another 15 minutes”. Me: Note that this is not in support for a launch attempt but for troubleshooting purposes. As outlined yesterday, NASA will use the tanking to gather additional data, which hopefully provides more insight into the root cause of that problem. Let’s hope that NASA manages to get that highly in demand data.

7:24am: NASA TV officially announces the launch scrub.

7:39am: The NASA homepage officially states that space shuttle Atlantis’ Sunday launch has been scrubbed.

7:55am: Commentator announces that a short news briefing will be held within the next ten minutes or so. Meanwhile, the launch attempt has been converted into a tanking test. NASA is hopeful to retrieve some data pointing to the root cause of the ECO sensor problems. It was also noted that the failure scenario this time was different from what has been seen at the last launch attempt on Thursday.

8:00am: mission management team meeting set for 9:00am. Liquid oxygen tank is being drained.

I just picked up this picture from NASA TV. It shows members of the mission management team discussing after space shuttle Atlantis second launch attempt had been scrubbed.

Members of the mission management team are discussing in launch control center after space shuttle Atlantis second launch attempt had been scrubbed.
8:14am: Press briefing begins. NASA launch director Doug Lyons is interviewed by public relations officer George Diller.

Mr. Lyons explained: “All the voltages had good readings as well. We were very excited. We thought we had a good system and ready to fly today. We continued monitoring and then we saw sensor number 3 go dry to wet, which was a failure.” He added that based on the launch commit criteria set yesterday, that meant the launch had to be scrubbed.

As already said, today is now devoted to troubleshooting. Mr. Lyons: “We do have a troubleshooting plan in place. We stopped the flow on the liquid hydrogen (LH2) system and put it into a stable posture configuration. And we drain the liquid oxygen (LOX) tank, than we focus on LH2, we drain down to 5% and stop there and then monitor the system for four hours and see how these systems behave. Then we drain and secure the pad.” I assume that this is done in order to see how thermal changes may affect sensors and their connections to the orbiter.

Mr. Lyons noted that the failure was not much different from Thursday’s failure: “The only difference is sensor 3 and 4 failed Thursday, and today just sensor number 3. It failed in the same time frame and the same manner.” It should be said, however, that every time before there was trouble with the ECO sensors, that trouble “magically disappeared” (to quote Wanye Hale) on second tanking. That was the rational for attempting a launch today. So something is different to previous experience.

Asked on how to proceed now, Mr. Lyons declined to comment: “We have a 9am mission management team meeting and discuss our options. It would be speculation at this time to try to make a guess on which direction we head. We have multiple options. We will put something together and then implement it after that meeting.

After the interview, NASA TV ended its coverage of today’s launch attempt at 8:21 am. ET.

Press conference is whenever the mission management team meeting concludes. My personal guess is this will be in the late afternoon/evening time frame.

I, too, will now conclude coverage of the launch attempt on this blog page. I’ll now stick to other things and wait for the press conference. Should exciting news happen, I hope to pick it up. If so, I’ll create a new posting on my blog. Thanks everyone for reading.

And a shameless self-promo plug: if you liked this article, share it and send a link to it to your friends ;)

Sunday Space Shuttle Launch Scrubbed!

Now it is official – today’s space shuttle Atlantis launch has been scrubbed due to a problem with ECO sensor number three.

Quote from the NASA home page:

Today’s launch of space shuttle Atlantis has been officially scrubbed. It was announced on NASA TV at 7:24 a.m. EST.

Of the four engine cutoff sensors, ECO sensor number three gave false readings. NASA’s current Launch Commit Criteria require that all four sensors function properly. The sensor system is one of several that protect the shuttle’s main engines by triggering their shut down if fuel runs unexpectedly low.

Atlantis’ scheduled launch on Thursday was delayed after two of the four engine cutoff, or ECO, sensors in the shuttle’s external fuel tank gave false readings. A third sensor failed after the tank was drained of fuel. The sensor system is one of several that protect the shuttle’s three main engines by triggering their shut down if fuel runs unexpectedly low.

To Launch or not to Launch?

The missing management team at NASA will have a very tough day today. As far as I know, a series of meetings have already begun. They are all about the ECO sensor issue – and how to proceed. It is hard to predict the outcome.

Let’s try to put some pieces together. Keep in mind that all of this is my personal guesswork. So tomorrow you may judge me based on what actually happens (hey, will I really do that…?).

From a technical point of view, it looks like the sensor issue can not be fixed quickly enough. The fact that there are intermittent problems in at least three (all four?) sensors makes it look like a problem with the electronics or cabling – not the sensors themselves. Fixing that would require at least three days at the pad – if it can be done there at all. Some think that a rollback is necessary. Troubleshooting the sensor system would best be done by a tanking test. However, that test has been called off by NASA in favor of consumables replenishment. To me, this is an indication that NASA has given up on fixing the ECO sensor system. In the press conference, they also mentioned that they are looking into rationale to fly as is. That also supports my argument.

But stop. Don’t say “better save than sorry”. Of course crew safety is first. But then remember that the ECO sensors are part of a backup system that kicks in when some other things already went wrong. They prevent the space shuttle main engines from running dry. So what? Do you think NASA puts not enough fuel into the tank? Obviously that isn’t the case. There is more than enough fuel in the tank for launch. So for the tank to run dry, something must be working quite wrong in the first place. Something like a leak or a similar serious issue. That’s an important point: the ECO sensors are an additional line of defense, but one that is never used in a normal flight. But, then, of course there is a reason for them to being there.

No let’s look at program constraints. If STS-22 can not make this launch window, it is not catastrophic, but will cause a wiggle in the schedule. Quite one, I think. That would cause already-much delayed international space station construction to be delayed even further. It will possibly also affect Constellation and Ares if the STS-125 hubble service mission must be moved. Pad 39B can only be handed over to Ares after the mission, because the STS-125 rescue launch-on-need mission needs to be at a pad to be able to launch it soon enough in case it is needed. So both pads are needed whenever STS-125 launches.

I guess there are also ISS constraints. We already know that construction is much delayed. Guess what? Space hardware has an expiry date. For example, the Columbus module that shall now be delivered by Atlantis is made to endure ten years in orbit. Of course, everyone hopes it will last longer. But its a simple fact: the longer hardware is in space, the less lifespan remains. Now think about all those years that other ISS components are already up there in space – waiting for the construction to finally complete. And every space ship is only as strong as its weakest part. May it be that any delay shrinks the time the ISS as whole can be productive in space (right now, its not really productive – much maintenance and construction going on and few science). Of course, a one month launch slip won’t hurt. But any larger delay will.

There is probably also one other risk with delaying the flight: if the ISS crew has to carry out vital tasks during STS-122 docked operations, their skills will fade. Astronauts are extremely well trained. But it is for a good reason that the practice until the last moment. Practicing at the ISS is rather limited. So the longer it takes, the less well-prepared the crew is. Of course, I do not know that really is an issue at this time. With STS-120, it was a very vital concern, because of all the complex staging spacewalks required by the ISS crew.

Think about it: it is not “just” the shuttle crew that must be kept save. There are also others (I have to admit that I too often overlooked that part of the picture).

As I said, its a tough decision…

Even if they launch as is, I do not think that the space shuttle’s crew life is more at risk than at any other launch (remember: spaceflight *is* a risky business). However, if something goes wrong and NASA needs to rely on the sensors, they will probably use ultra-conservative procedures. At least this is what I would expect. Thus, a launch abort would be much more likely.

And now think what happens if there is TAL (Transatlantic Abort Landing). First of all, it would be expensive. But even worse, how would the public react? Wouldn’t that be the last nail in NASA’s space shuttle program (and probably Constellation as well)? So there is a high risk in that, too. At least from an overall program perspective.

There are also political implications. Especially in this mission. Atlantis carries the European Columbus module into space. That cost roughly a billion (!) dollars. I guess the ESA would not be very amused if Columbus would be damaged due to some launch failure. Please note that I do not talk of a catastrophic failure, but of an abort, which can cause harm anyway. Given the fragile relationship between NASA and ESA, there is obviously some political thought that must be involved in the decision making.

I hope you by now have gotten an idea how many things and details need to be considered. I am sure I am still just scratching on the surface. The bottom line is that none of us outsiders will be in the position to judge it correctly. We should remind ourselves about that when we talk about the final mission management team decision.

Also, we do not have any solid data. The most important thing missing is probabilities. How probable is it that the ECO sensors are actually needed – I mean that the tank really runs dry? Is it 1 in 5,000? Or 1 in 100? The former one is probably a risk that can be accepted (the debris hit probability is much higher) while the later one obviously draws a different picture. Without solid data, you can not decide.

The whole situation looks much like the RCC panel issue we had with STS-120. However, at that time there was some more solid data at the time of decision making.

This is what the meetings are currently about: gathering data, looking at options and then deciding on what is the best thing to do after everything is put together. Such a decision, whatever it may be, easily upsets some folks (us, maybe?) who do not have the full reasoning at hand. I personally trust NASA guys to do the right thing. These are very bright people, doing a tremendous job in a very unforgiving business.

But would is my personal bet? I promised to do one… Tough, really tough. If I had to decide with just the information that is in this post… Well, I would probably fly as is on Saturday. Am I having launch fewer? Judge yourself. Here is my line of defense:

  1. The ECO sensors are “just” a second line of defense. Something else must go seriously wrong in order to need them.
  2. During launch, crew and mission control can manually monitor ECO sensor performance. If the show dry early into flight, this must be a failure. I admit that it gets harder the later we go into flight.
  3. If an abort is needed, there are established procedures and no catastrophic outcome is to be expected. However, the shuttle program and NASA itself would probably pay a big price. That risk is accepted.
  4. The launch and construction schedule can be maintained.
  5. The risk for the ISS crew is minimized

If I look at my arguments, number one and two are the strongest one. If looking from a political point of view, you may also come to the decision to postpone to avoid the program risk. And, of course, depending on probabilities, you would like to avoid a lunch because of crew safety risks. But now I am spinning in circles ;)

I’ve done my bet, now let’s see what the real outcome is.

Trying to preserve extra EVA

Now I know why there is no tanking test today. CBS’ status report (a long reading with many details) provides the reason: it is to preserve the capability to do an extra EVA (“extravehicular activity”, also known as a “spacewalk”) on the STS-122 mission.

Each launch attempt draws at least a bit from the internal consumables. Let me quote the relevant part from CBS’s page:

In the meantime, NASA managers ruled out a fueling test Friday and decided instead to top off the shuttle’s onboard supply of liquid hydrogen to power the ship’s electricity producing fuel cells. That would permit launch attempts Saturday and Sunday and still provide enough on-board supplies for a two-day mission extension and the addition of a fourth spacewalk.

This makes an awful lot of sense if you take the problems with the international space station’s solar array rotary joint into account. While that poses no problem for Columbus, I think the Kibo module can not be attached (or at least not sufficiently be powered) if the SARJ issues has not been solved until then.

NASA is hoping for a two-day mission extension to do an extra spacewalk in support of the SARJ issue. However, this is only possible if consumables permit. Having full tanks on launch is a number one requirement to achieve that goal…

STS-122 launch status Update…

After the scrub of yesterday’s launch attempt, space shuttle Atlantis will launch not earlier than Saturday, December, 8th 2007. However, even that date is under consideration.

The Rotating Service Structure is re-attached to Atlantis
The Rotating Service Structure is being reattached to Atlantis
As of the press briefing yesterday night, there were issues with two of the ECO sensors. This was known and expected. However, NASA also told that there were some anomalies with some other ECO sensors. So right now this looks like a much bigger issue than it originally appeared. I personally think the chance for a simple sensor error is weak – why then do we have these multiple failures? So the solution is probably somewhere in either electronics or their connection path to the sensors. And if that’s the case it is questionable if it can be fixed at the pad.

In the press conference, it was stated that today should be a tanking test. However, the RSS has been re-attached to Atlantis and I have been told that no tanking test can be done with the RSS attached. Whatever they do, there is only very limited ability to repair systems within the 48 hour scrub window.

Consequently, also stated on the press conference, the Saturday launch will most probably only happen if NASA finds rationale to fly with two dead sensors. If these two sensors consistently behave wrong and the other two work well, there might be good reason to fly as is. In my personal opinion, though, this is not likely, because the other sensors also seem not to work consistently.

In short words: the guessing game is open. I do not expect any more solid information until after today’s press conference, which is scheduled around 5pm ET.

RSS rotating after shuttle launch scrub

After the shuttle launch scrub on December, 6th, the rotating service structure has been rotated back. This is done both to protect space shuttle Atlantis from the weather and also to allow technicians access to it. Troubleshooting is currently in progress and the next launch attempt is no earlier than Saturday, December, 8th.

And this one is from a slightly different perspective:

The animations were created from public NASA webcam images. To start the animations, you must press the (small…) play button on the lower left! I also have a higher resolution version at my personal web site. If you are interested in details, these are probably the ones you would like to look at.

STS-122 Launch Scrub Press Conference…

Actually, it was a quick status briefing and not a press conference. There is not yet much information, so they had not to tell a lot. The scrub of Atlantis STS-122 launch attempt on December, 6th has been confirmed once again. Neither Atlantis nor Columbus, its primary payload, will launch into space today. The next launch attempt will be no earlier than tomorrow, but may be farther delayed.

The problem is related to two ECO sensors which had invalid readings. This type of problem is typically discovered late in the countdown, while tanking (that same type of problem prevented me from seeing the STS-115 launch in 2006…). There are four of these sensors.

Space Shuttle ECO Sensor during Testing.
ECO Sensors in a Test Setting
Troubleshooting is currently underway. They will send out an inspection team to do a quick evaluation of the external tank status. This will take around an hour and a half. There is a technical meeting at noon, where options will be discussed. At 2pm, there is a mission management team meeting, which will decide on how to continue forward. A press conference on the outcome of that meeting is expected no earlier than 4pm.

The firing room guys will work on a routine that provides a 24-hour turnaround. From their point of view, a December, 7th launch is a possibility. However, it is yet uncertain if it is also a possibility when looking at the big picture. So if the missing management team gives a “go” for Saturday, this can be done. If that would be the case, the launch attempt will be at 4:09pm tomorrow (each attempt is roughly 30 minutes earlier than the previous one).

Space Shuttle Atlantis sitting at the Pad after the December, 6th launch scrub.
Atlantis sitting at the Pad after the December, 6th launch scrub

STS-122 unfortunately has a very narrow launch window. It extends just 7 days and possibly one more day if the mission duration is shortened by one day. Even more unfortunate, NASA was hoping for a two-day mission extension to help troubleshoot solar array problems on the international space station.

I will post any updates when I receive them.
But I guess I won’t have much more solid information before the end of the 4pm press conference. BTW: all times are EST.